Forecast Headaches: Timing T-Storms in Summer

Here is the Weather Outlook through Midday on Thursday. It shows scattered showers and storms that developed during the day on Wednesday. Some storms may be more intense than others, with heavy rains in some areas.

The extended precipitation forecast through the week ahead shows pockets of heavier rain possible with some of the thunderstorms through the end of the week.

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday, May 31st spotty showers and storms possible in the morning and again in the afternoon. Temps will warm to near 90F with higher humidity values, which will make it feel even hotter.

The hourly temps through the day Wednesday show temps starting in the upper 60s in the morning with a few spotty t-showers. Temps will warm to near 90F by the afternoon with more showers and storms developing during the PM hours. Southerly winds will be breezy with gusts up to 15mph.

Here is the weather forecast for Wednesday. The temperatures will rise to the upper 80s or lower 90s in many places, which is +15F-20F above the average for the last May day. Isolated t showers will develop in the afternoon with heavy rainfall locally.

The weekend will see temperatures approaching 90F, which is +10F to 15F above average. Some days will see temperatures reaching the low/mid 90s.

Dewpoints will remain at more uncomfortable levels through the week with readings in the 60s. The 60F mark tends to be the benchmark, meaning anything above 60F feels uncomfortable, while anything below that doesn’t feel too bad.

The extended weather outlook for the Twin Cities remains dry through the first weekend of June shows warm and unsettled skies with spotty showers and storms possible each afternoon and evening through early next week.

The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows a string a very warm temps in place through the end of May and into early June. The rest of the week will be quite hot with readings approaching the 90F mark – Uffda!

The large bubble of high pressure that kept our skies quiet over the long holiday weekend has moved east, which has allowed scattered showers and storms to move into the Midwest and closer to the Twin Cities. This warm and unsettled weather pattern will stick around for several more days. Hopefully we’ll get some decent precipitation this week.

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14-day temperature outlook shows warmer-than-average temperatures settling in across the Pacific Northwest with cooler than average readings across the Southwestern and Northeastern US.

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather possible across the western half of the nation. We may see drier weather continue in the Midwest/Great Lakes as well.

“What time will I get wet, Paul? Please be specific.” My shoulders ache mightily from all this shrugging. Pop-up, hit-or-miss summer T-storms are random, fickle and chaotic. All we can do is predict when conditions will ripe, when the atmosphere will be unstable and irritable. But forecasting when and where a 5-mile wide storm will bubble up days or even hours in advance? Good luck with that.

It is much easier to predict the timing of snow or rain from fall to spring. Our weather models show storms that are hundreds of miles in size.

This reality check is another way to say that there will be storms in the evenings and into the weekend but the majority of the time it will be dry. And hot. And sticky. A taste of July will soon arrive.

Next week, a stagnant pattern is expected with sticky dewpoints and (if the sun remains out for most of the day), highs around 90F. The normal MSP maximum is now 74F. You may have daydreamed about a scorching summer in April. It’s here.

WEDNESDAY: Hot sun, stray T-storm. Winds: S 10 to 15. High 90.

Wednesday night: Isolated storms and showers. Winds: SSE, 5-10. Low: 70.

Thursday: Partly sunny and sticky. Isolated storm. Winds: S 10-15. High 89.

FRIDAY: Hot, muggy and with a stray thunderstorm. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 70. High: 88.

SATURDAYSunny, hot with a very slight chance of thunder. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 68. High: 90.

SUNDAYSunny, but still humid. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 69. High: 88.

MONDAY: Dog Days. Blue sky. Winds: SE 5- 10. Wake-up: 67. High: 90.

TUESDAY: Some sun, T-storms later. Winds: E 7-12. Wake-up: 66. High: 91.

May 31st

1934 Extreme heat affects the Twin Cities with highs of 110 in St. Paul and 10 6 in Minneapolis. Rush City reached 110. Heat illness affects both people and animals in large numbers.

1932 A heat wave hit southern Minnesota with highs of up to 108 in Campbell, Fairmont and Faribault.

May 31st

Average High: 74F

Average Low: 55F

Record Rainfall: 2,39″ in 1965

Record Snowfall: NONE

May 31st

Sunrise: 5:30am

Sunset: 8:50pm

Hours of daylight: 15 & 20

Daylight GAINED from yesterday: +1 minute & 32 seconds

Since the Winter Solstice on December 21st, Daylight gained is 6 hours & 34 minutes

“3.9 Days until Full Strawberry Moon on May 5 at 12 :34 PM CDT – Flowers everywhere. The Full Corn Planting Moon was also called the Milk Moon. A penumbral lunar Eclipse also occurs this night in Antarctica, Oceania and Australasia. It can also be seen in Europe, Africa, South Georgia, South Sandwich Islands Islands, Asia, Europe or Africa. A subtle darkening of the upper limb of the moon may occur within an hour either side of the maximum eclipse (17.24 GMT) when nearly 97% of it will be in the penumbral shade. Unfortunately, this eclipse will not be visible from North America. ”

Click HERE to see more from Space.com

Temperatures on Wednesday will be very mild across the Midwest with highs running above average by nearly +10F to +15F. Meanwhile, folks in the Mid-Atlantic States and along the West Coast will be cooler than average.

The weather forecast for Wednesday is unsettled in the Plains. There will be a few spotty T-storms. Some of these could be strong or severe, with local heavy rainfall.

The weather outlook through Thursday shows spotty showers and storms developing across the Plains and also in the Southeastern US. There could be a few isolated strong to severe storms here and there, but it won’t be too widespread.

According to NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across parts of the Central Plains and also the Southeastern US. A few locations could see 1″ to 3″ of rain over the next several days.

“In 1984, Andrew Bader was 5 years old when his parents took him across the country by train. They went from California to New York. It was one of the last trips Bader took with his parents before they separated. In 2021, Bader reenacted a portion with his father and son, aged 6 years old. The plan was to take Amtrak’s Coast Starlight from the San Francisco Bay Area up to Seattle (a 22-hour trip) and then watch a Seattle Mariners match at T-Mobile Park. “I inherited my father’s love of baseball and I wanted to connect this between generations,” said Bader. A Bay Area public schoolteacher. He hoped that if all went well, the trip would become a new tradition in his family. ”

Grist: See more HERE

“Even if adventure sports are not your thing, you may have wondered what it would be like to reach up and touch the clouds while on an airplane. Or maybe, during a particularly bumpy flight, you were grateful to be in the cabin, and not on the wings. What would it feel like to be exposed to the elements as skydivers are when they pass through clouds? The experience of falling through clouds will vary depending on your protective gear, the weather conditions and the cloud type. These factors can result in conditions where you are soaked, frozen or even unconscious. ”

Live Science – More information HERE

“What is in wildfire smoke? When we discuss air quality, we frequently refer to PM2.5. This is particulate matter that is 2.5 microns in size or smaller. It’s small enough to travel deep into the lung. Smoke or other air pollutants, such as vehicle exhaust, can cause exposure to PM2.5, which can worsen respiratory conditions and even heart disease. The term PM2.5 is only a measure of size and not composition. What you are burning can have a big impact on the chemistry. ”

Click HERE to read more about The Conversation